ShinHyuck Kang

Email: shinkang@kipf.re.kr or shinkangecon@gmail.com

Field of Interest: Macroeconomics, Labor Economics, Quantitative Economics

Curriculum Vitae (PDF, Updated in Mar. 2025)

### 2022 KLI Fertility and Labor Forum (Organizing Forum)

Working Papers

Regular and Non-regular Workers Substitutability and Policy Implications in South Korea
Revise & Resubmit, Korean Economic Review

Abstract
I explore the effects of policies that affect relative prices between regular and non-regular workers in South Korea. To this end, I first estimate the constant elasticity of substitution (CES) production function using the Korean workplace level panel data. The implied elasticity of substitution implies that regular and non-regular workers are substitutes. Based on the empirical estimate, I implement policy experiments and counter-factual analysis using the calibrated heterogeneous firm model. The model is rich as it calibrates both firing and hiring costs, which are crucial factors of determining relative prices between regular and non-regular workers. Policy experiments imply that it is crucial to consider the degree of substitution and labor adjustment costs.

Abstract

I explore the effects of policies that affect relative prices between regular and non-regular workers in South Korea. To this end, I first estimate the constant elasticity of substitution (CES) production function using the Korean workplace level panel data. The implied elasticity of substitution implies that regular and non-regular workers are substitutes. Based on the empirical estimate, I implement policy experiments and counter-factual analysis using the calibrated heterogeneous firm model. The model is rich as it calibrates both firing and hiring costs, which are crucial factors of determining relative prices between regular and non-regular workers. Policy experiments imply that it is crucial to consider the degree of substitution and labor adjustment costs.

Paper (pdf) / SSRN Working Paper

Cyclical Dynamics of Shopping: Aggregate Implications on Labor and Product Markets
Reject & Resubmit, International Economic Review

Abstract
I propose a theory of price hunting over the business cycle with empirical evidence. In the U.S. data, not only is aggregate shopping time lower in recession but also it is more pronounced for unemployed individuals than employed ones. However, the standard price search models based on the income effect predict opposites. In this paper, I build a model of endogenous price hunting in decentralized labor and product markets. The model predicts that the joint effect of a procyclical return to shopping, which this paper newly finds, and the standard income effect explains the data. Empirical evidence based on the consumer panel data supports the arguments. Lastly, I identify that while search frictions amplify business cycle fluctuations, endogenous shopping effort consistent with the data does not.

Abstract

I propose a theory of price hunting over the business cycle with empirical evidence. In the U.S. data, not only is aggregate shopping time lower in recession but also it is more pronounced for unemployed individuals than employed ones. However, the standard price search models based on the income effect predict opposites. In this paper, I build a model of endogenous price hunting in decentralized labor and product markets. The model predicts that the joint effect of a procyclical return to shopping, which this paper newly finds, and the standard income effect explains the data. Empirical evidence based on the consumer panel data supports the arguments. Lastly, I identify that while search frictions amplify business cycle fluctuations, endogenous shopping effort consistent with the data does not.

Paper (pdf) / SSRN Working Paper

What can explain the hump-shaped job search intensities over the life-cycle?
Revise & Resubmit, Macroeconomic Dynamics

Abstract
This paper explores the puzzling inverted U-shape job search profile for U.S. data. It is well established that the standard life-cycle incomplete market model is incapable of explaining this phenomenon because of the wealth effect. I argue two channels to explain the puzzle: (i) the resolution of perceived risks through Bayesian learning, and (ii) wealth accumulation in the incomplete market over the life-cycle. To support this, I empirically and analytically show that unemployed job seekers devote less efforts to find jobs under higher uncertainty and wealth.

Abstract

This paper explores the puzzling inverted U-shape job search profile for U.S. data. It is well established that the standard life-cycle incomplete market model is incapable of explaining this phenomenon because of the wealth effect. I argue two channels to explain the puzzle: (i) the resolution of perceived risks through Bayesian learning, and (ii) wealth accumulation in the incomplete market over the life-cycle. To support this, I empirically and analytically show that unemployed job seekers devote less efforts to find jobs under higher uncertainty and wealth.

Paper (pdf) / SSRN Working Paper

Publications

Endogenous Uncertainty and Monetary Policy
with Kwangyong Park
Macroeconomic Dynamics(2024), 28, pp. 462–477

Abstract
In this paper, we empirically explore the endogeneity of uncertainty and the interaction between different types of uncertainty and monetary policy using a shock-restricted vector-autoregression model. We find that a contractionary monetary policy shock reduces financial uncertainty, opposite to Bekaert et al. (2013), while at the same time it also heightens real uncertainty. This discrepancy arises because the model allows endogenous shifts in uncertainty. We also show that endogenous responses of uncertainty amplify the effects of monetary policy on real activity.

Abstract

In this paper, we empirically explore the endogeneity of uncertainty and the interaction between different types of uncertainty and monetary policy using a shock-restricted vector-autoregression model. We find that a contractionary monetary policy shock reduces financial uncertainty, opposite to Bekaert et al. (2013), while at the same time it also heightens real uncertainty. This discrepancy arises because the model allows endogenous shifts in uncertainty. We also show that endogenous responses of uncertainty amplify the effects of monetary policy on real activity.

DOI(Journal Link) / SSRN Working Paper

Work in Progress

Regional and Aggregate Fiscal Multipliers in Korea

with Hwanoong Lee

Human Capital over the Life-Cycle: Ben-Porath AND Learning By Doing under Search Frictions Functional Analysis of Government Spending

with Seunghee Lee

The Aggregate and Regional Effects of Minimum Wage Changes

with Hwanoong Lee and Joonseok Oh

Fiscal Policy and Labor Market Mismatch over the Life Cycle

Working Paper in Korean

Policy Reports (in Korean)

재정승수효과 추정에 관한 연구: 시군구 단위 분석을 중심으로 (Working Report)

with 이환웅

2024, 한국조세재정연구원 (Korea Institute of Public Finance)

거시모형을 통한 노동시장 미시적 기반 이해(Working Report)

with 방형준(연구책임자)

2024, 한국노동연구원 (Korea Labor Institute)

주요국의 탄소중립 설비투자 조세지원제도 연구 with 송은주, 노수경

2024, 한국조세재정연구원 (Korea Institute of Public Finance)

재정정책과 누진세의 거시경제적 함의점: 노동시장 동학을 중심으로 with 김선빈, 한종석, 마은성
2023, 한국노동연구원 (Korea Labor Institute)

Link

AI 데이터 기반 재정경제 디지털트윈 플랫폼 개발 with 김유빈, 방형준

2022-2023, 한국노동연구원 (Korea Labor Institute). 한국전자통신연구원(ETRI) 위탁연구사업

노동시장 분석센터 위탁사업

2023, 한국노동연구원 (Korea Labor Institute). 고용노동부 위탁연구사업

2024년 국세수입 전망을 위한 노동시장 전망

2023, 한국노동연구원 (Korea Labor Institute). 한국조세재정연구원 용역

고용보험기금 재정추계 연구 with 장인성(연구책임자), 손연정, 황선웅

2023, 한국노동연구원 (Korea Labor Institute). 고용노동부 위탁연구사업

연구회 기획 협동연구「산업 및 직종별 인력수급전망과 외국인력 수요 연구」 with 이상돈,정지운,길은선,조은교,박상수,이은창,이임자,김동근,김재진,이용호,최민철,김지현,전현희,채단비,나정현,고영선,엄진영,마상진,박광배,박영범,어수봉,노용진,박철성,주수인,신운철

2023, 한국노동연구원 (Korea Labor Institute). 경제인문사회연구회

정부재정사업 일자리창출효과 연구

with 김지운, 이환웅

2023, 한국노동연구원 (Korea Labor Institute)

노동시장 탐색 마찰과 인적자본축적 동학
2022, 한국노동연구원 (Korea Labor Institute)

Link

청년과 중고령 세대 간 고용대체 관계 연구 with 김세움(연구책임자), 윤윤규
2022, 한국노동연구원 (Korea Labor Institute)

Link

미국 노동시장 동향과 물가 동향
([Global Issue Brief] Vol.3 글로벌 인플레이션 이슈와 진단)

Report(Download)

임금 상승과 물가 상승 간 관계
2022, 한국노동연구원 (Korea Labor Institute) 노동리뷰 2022.08

Link / Report(Download)

출산의 소득탄력성-미시적 이론과 거시적 결과 with 김선빈, 홍재화, 오준석
2021, 한국노동연구원 (Korea Labor Institute)

Link

저출산이 여성 노동시장에 미치는 영향
2021, 한국노동연구원 (Korea Labor Institute)

Link

생애주기 구직노력과 소득 위험
2020, 한국노동연구원 (Korea Labor Institute)

Link

규모간 임금격차 변화 원인과 정책방향 with 성재민 (연구책임자), 방형준
2020, 한국노동연구원 (Korea Labor Institute)

Link

노동시장 이중구조와 청년 일자리(Ⅱ) with 안주엽 (연구책임자), 오선정
2020, 한국노동연구원 (Korea Labor Institute)

Link

청년층 일자리 현황과 변화 전망 with 김유빈 (연구책임자), 김영아
2020, 한국노동연구원 (Korea Labor Institute)

Link

노동시장 불평등 현황과 대책 with 윤윤규(연구책임자), 장인성, 최세림, 김현경, 이아영, 김예슬, 김유선, 윤정향, 김용하, 김동배
2019, 경인사연 협동과제

Link

Publications in Korean

Elasticity of Substitution between Age Groups in South Korea (연령 간 대체탄력성 추정에 관한 연구)
(Forthcoming) Journal of Korean Economic Analysis (한국경제의 분석)

Empirical Investigation of Wage – Price Spiral using long-time series wage data (한국 장기 임금 자료를 활용한 임금 – 물가 악순환(Wage – Price Spiral) 분석)
2024, The Korean Journal of Economic Studies (경제학연구), No 72(1), 141 − 173

Journal Link

Investigating Effects of Employment Maintenance Subsidies Using a Heterogeneous Firm-Model (구조모형을 통해 살펴본 고용유지지원제도가 고용 및 거시경제에 미치는 효과 분석)
2022, The Korean Economic Forum (한국경제포럼), No 15(3), p.87 - 116 (in Korean)

Journal Link

Analyzing the employment impact of the R&D investment policies of the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry : Differential effects by firm characteristics with Sun Jung Oh (의약품제조업 R&D 투자 정책의 고용효과 분석, 공저자: 오선정)
2021, The Korean Association for Policy Studies (한국정책학회보), No 30(2) (in Korean)

Journal Link

Publications in Data-Science

Bridging Dynamic Factor Models and Neural Controlled Differential Equations for Nowcasting GDP with Seonkyu Lim, Jeongwhan Choi, Noseong Park, Sang-Ha Yoon, Young Min Kim and Hyunjoong Kang
In Proceedings of the 33rd ACM International Conference on Information and Knowledge Management (CIKM)

Journal Link